Which prediction market is the most accurate?
Not measured — no engine answer has been captured on this question yet. That is different from the engines answering and naming nobody.
6 of 8 names confirmed · named in 2 or more of 5 answers · 0 engines
The most accurate prediction market depends on the type of event, liquidity, and how accuracy is measured, with Kalshi and Polymarket being top performers for different categories.
- 1Polymarketnamed in 5 of 5 answers
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- 2Kalshinamed in 5 of 5 answers
- 3Robinhoodnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 4Metaculusnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 5Manifoldnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 6FanDuel Predictsnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 7Crypto.comnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 8DraftKingsnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
LOCKED
The full measurement
- The position each of the 5 engines gave all 8 names.
- How many of the 5 answers named each of them.
- Where the engines disagree, and by how much.
- Fan-out — the query each engine actually searched.
- Every citation, and the sources nobody cited.