Which prediction app is the most accurate?
Asked "Which prediction app is the most accurate?", Gemini, Google AI Mode, ChatGPT and Copilot named 13 distinct tools across 5 answers on September 3, 2026, and 4 of them in two or more answers.
Measured acrossGeminiGoogle AI ModeChatGPTCopilot
4 of 13 names confirmed · named in 2 or more of 5 answers · asked September 3, 2026 · 4 engines
The most accurate prediction app depends on the domain being predicted, with Polymarket and Kalshi being top choices for politics and economics, and other apps like FanDuel Predicts and Metaculus suitable for sports and long-term forecasting.
- 1Polymarketnamed in 4 of 5 answers
- 2Kalshinamed in 3 of 5 answers
- 3Metaculusnamed in 3 of 5 answers
- 4FanDuel Predictsnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 5ForecastWatchnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 6The Weather Channel Appnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 7ProphetXnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 8AccuWeathernamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 9Google WeatherNextnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 10DraftKings Predictionsnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 11Clutchnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 12Manifold Marketsnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 13Sleeper Marketsnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
LOCKED
The full measurement
- The position each of the 4 engines gave all 13 names.
- How many of the 5 answers named each of them.
- 21 sampled observations behind this ranking, and where the engines disagree.
- Fan-out — the query each engine actually searched.
- Every citation, and the sources nobody cited.