What is the most accurate prediction market?
Not measured — no engine answer has been captured on this question yet. That is different from the engines answering and naming nobody.
3 of 5 names confirmed · named in 2 or more of 5 answers · 0 engines
The most accurate prediction market depends on the type of question, liquidity, and how you measure performance, with Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus often being top choices for different use cases.
- 1Polymarketnamed in 5 of 5 answers
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- 2Kalshinamed in 5 of 5 answers
- 3Metaculusnamed in 3 of 5 answers
- 4Manifoldnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 5Manifold Marketsnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
LOCKED
The full measurement
- The position each of the 5 engines gave all 5 names.
- How many of the 5 answers named each of them.
- Where the engines disagree, and by how much.
- Fan-out — the query each engine actually searched.
- Every citation, and the sources nobody cited.