How far away is Agi realistically?
Asked "How far away is Agi realistically?", Gemini, Google AI Mode, ChatGPT and Copilot named 13 distinct names across 5 answers on September 7, 2026, and 8 of them in two or more answers.
Measured acrossGeminiGoogle AI ModeChatGPTCopilot
8 of 13 names confirmed · named in 2 or more of 5 answers · asked September 7, 2026 · 4 engines
AGI is realistically years away, with estimates ranging from the late 2020s to several decades, depending on the definition of AGI and technical breakthroughs.
- 1Metaculusnamed in 3 of 5 answers
- 2OpenAInamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 3IBMnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 4Anthropicnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 5Kalshinamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 6Mediumnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 7YouTubenamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 8Redditnamed in 2 of 5 answers
- 9Nvidianamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 10Skynet Countdownnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 11AGI Watchersnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 12HowCloseIsAGInamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
- 13AGIScorecardnamed in 1 of 5 answersone answer
LOCKED
The full measurement
- The position each of the 4 engines gave all 13 names.
- How many of the 5 answers named each of them.
- 11 sampled observations behind this ranking, and where the engines disagree.
- Fan-out — the query each engine actually searched.
- Every citation, and the sources nobody cited.